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Month: December 2021
Inflation continues to harden
The CPI based inflation hardened for the month of Nov’21, second consecutive month in a row, as food inflation ticked higher. The headline inflation for the month of Nov’21 came in at 4.91% as compared to 4.48% in the preceding month and 6.93% during the year ago period. The core inflation remained largely stable and […]
Currency Markets
The dominant trend in currency markets is the strength of the US Dollar, and this is founded on strong ground that the US rates are rising no matter what happens. The factors that are likely to facilitate this are the stronger than expected economic recovery and the high inflation. The Fed’s decision to start the […]
Gold Update
Gold has been in a broad range of 1760 level to 1860 level during the last one month. The only factor that is supporting gold at this juncture is the rise in inflation and the consequent erosion of purchasing power. There has been a significant moderation in commodity prices, and this is due to the […]
Equities, Trailing Normalization
The equity markets are going through a phase of higher volatility, mainly reflecting to a large extent, the developments abroad, especially in the US. The normalization of liquidity is going to bring with it the normalization of returns, as the markets go through some correction in response to liquidity normalization, higher inflation, and rising interest […]
Rising Yields with Normalization…
As far as surplus liquidity is concerned, the normalization process has accelerated in the US with the Fed initiating the tapering of bond purchases by US$ 15 billion. This amount has been subsequently enhanced to US $30 billion due to high inflation. In India, the RBI intensified the process of liquidity normalization by announcing Variable […]
RBI Policy: Aggressive Liquidity Management, Higher Short-Term Rates
The RBI policy announcement has retained the policy rates unchanged, with Repo Rate and Reverse Repo Rate at 4.00% and 3.35% respectively. The policy underlines the commitment to pursue an accommodative stance for an extended period of time to support economic growth, while pursuing the liquidity normalization. As expected, the liquidity management aspects get more […]
GDP Update – Q2FY22
The GDP growth number for Q2FY22 was reported at 8.4% as compared to a contraction of 7.4% in the first quarter of FY21. The GVA number for Q2FY22 came in at 8.5% as compared to -7.3% during the year ago comparable period. The GDP and GVA growth rates for the preceding quarter was 20.1% and […]
Tapering – Further Acceleration Expected
The Fed Chairman, in his testimony to the Senate Committee, made some meaningful observations, which point towards a potential Fed action in the near future. First, there is a realization that inflation is not transitory or transient anymore. Inflation is going to stay high, and policy needs to address this emerging requirement. Second, there is […]
RBI Policy: Aggressive Liquidity Management, Higher Short-Term Rates
The RBI policy announcement has retained the policy rates unchanged, with Repo Rate and Reverse Repo Rate at 4.00% and 3.35% respectively. The policy underlines the commitment to pursue an accommodative stance for an extended period of time to support economic growth, while pursuing the liquidity normalization. As expected, the liquidity management aspects get more […]
Brent is Floating at Crucial Levels
Brent remains elevated above the US$ 80 level and looks exceptionally well supported at the current levels. Oil was not that important for almost two years in the general scheme of things. But suddenly it has become a matter that calls for the maximum attention. This has many reasons. The first and foremost is the […]
Dollar Holds Its Sway…
The US Dollar, as expected, maintains its sway over the currency markets, with the strength against the majors remaining unchallenged. While the strength of the Dollar has been mainly due to the change in the Fed’s stance starting with the soon to be implemented normalization of liquidity by tapering of bond purchases. The end result […]