Market fairly valued now, but challenge is to maintain economic growth momentum & reduce inflation

The situation that we are encountering today is a bull market correction. The correction is quite deep with a fall equivalent to 15 percent from the peak levels. But it is too early to say whether the market has turned bearish, says Dr. Joseph Thomas, Head of Research in an interview with Dr. Thomas […]

Brent, More Complex Dynamics

In our last update on oil prices, it was mentioned that “those who promote this view (oil at US$ 100) pin their hopes on the limited capacity which OPEC + may have in expanding the supply, and this dead end may trigger a surge in prices. There is also a talk of structurally bullish phase […]

Good Times for the US Dollar

The trend is intact. The US Dollar is stronger. There is no reason to expect this to soften anytime given the several factors that lend strength to the US unit. The likely hike in the base rate by the Fed in a month or two, and the rising US yields have added strength to the […]

Inflation and Geo-Political Tensions Bring Gains in Gold Prices

Gold has maintained a broad range of US$ 1760 – US$ 1860. Whie it is technically still within the range, there are two factors that have provided some sheen to the yellow metal. The first factor is the inflationary situation prevailing in many large economies, and the second and probably more transient factor is the […]

Market Rates May Continue Their Upward Walk

While the budget with its massive borrowing program, and a long-drawn-out fiscal glide path, was not entirely to the liking of the fixed income market. These were obvious reasons why the market rates went up, as expected by the market participants. Immediately after the budget the rates moved up and the benchmark ten year touched […]

Inflation Touches 7 Months’ High…

The CPI based inflation continued to harden and breached the RBI’s target range of 2% to 6%. The headline inflation for the month of Jan’22 came in at 6.01% as compared to 5.66% in the preceding month and 4.06% during the year ago period. The rise in inflation was mostly attributable to an unfavourable base […]

RBI Policy: Rates Unchanged but the Next Policy Statement More Crucial

The policy rates have been left unchanged and the policy stance remains accommodative. The Governor opened his statement like this – economic growth is good and better than other countries, inflation is still within the threshold set by the RBI, and the pandemic is still a threat, and therefore, the need to protect lives and […]

Global Economies: Policy Divergence and Long-term Expectations

A marked divergence between countries is visible in their approach to post pandemic fiscal and monetary policy. The UK has hiked the base rate twice in the last two months to contain inflation despite being one of the worst affected in the last wave of the pandemic. In contrast to this, the approach of the […]