The equities markets had seen the last major fall to the tune of about 15 % and after the subsequent revival, looks set to test lower levels in the coming weeks. The local market often mirrors the US market developments. The recent gains in the market have been the result of a kind of moderation […]
A probate ensures a seamless transfer of assets to the legal beneficiaries of the deceased, and is also mandatory in the Presidency towns of Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai. Know more about the process of obtaining one Making a Will not only ensures that your wishes are respected once you are gone, but without a carefully […]
“No one size fits all” is used aptly for private trusts. A private trust commonly used for succession planning is a bespoke document and one can customize a trust deed to meet one’s family objectives. Though a private trust is governed by the Indian Trust Act, 1882 and Income Tax Act, 1961, if offers […]
The Banking & Financial Services sector (BFSI), over the years, has emerged as one of the most diverse plays on the India growth story. While the importance of a stable banking industry to support the economic growth cannot be stressed enough, the opportunities available across the financial services segment today makes this sector an even […]
Retail inflation indicated by the CPI for the month of February has touched 6.07 %, and it has come up from 6.02 % for January, and in the last two months inflation has been above the ceiling of the threshold set by the RBI, which is 6 %. The primary factor that has contributed to […]
The Fed has acted finally to revise the target fed funds rate by 0.25%, taking the rate to the range of 0.25% to 0.50%. The last such hike was in December 2018. This move by the Fed is exactly on expected lines and there is no surprise element in this at all. The actual rate […]
The situation that we are encountering today is a bull market correction. The correction is quite deep with a fall equivalent to 15 percent from the peak levels. But it is too early to say whether the market has turned bearish, says Dr. Joseph Thomas, Head of Research in an interview with moneycontrol.com. Dr. Thomas […]
In our last update on oil prices, it was mentioned that “those who promote this view (oil at US$ 100) pin their hopes on the limited capacity which OPEC + may have in expanding the supply, and this dead end may trigger a surge in prices. There is also a talk of structurally bullish phase […]
The trend is intact. The US Dollar is stronger. There is no reason to expect this to soften anytime given the several factors that lend strength to the US unit. The likely hike in the base rate by the Fed in a month or two, and the rising US yields have added strength to the […]
Gold has maintained a broad range of US$ 1760 – US$ 1860. Whie it is technically still within the range, there are two factors that have provided some sheen to the yellow metal. The first factor is the inflationary situation prevailing in many large economies, and the second and probably more transient factor is the […]
While the budget with its massive borrowing program, and a long-drawn-out fiscal glide path, was not entirely to the liking of the fixed income market. These were obvious reasons why the market rates went up, as expected by the market participants. Immediately after the budget the rates moved up and the benchmark ten year touched […]
The CPI based inflation continued to harden and breached the RBI’s target range of 2% to 6%. The headline inflation for the month of Jan’22 came in at 6.01% as compared to 5.66% in the preceding month and 4.06% during the year ago period. The rise in inflation was mostly attributable to an unfavourable base […]
The policy rates have been left unchanged and the policy stance remains accommodative. The Governor opened his statement like this – economic growth is good and better than other countries, inflation is still within the threshold set by the RBI, and the pandemic is still a threat, and therefore, the need to protect lives and […]
A marked divergence between countries is visible in their approach to post pandemic fiscal and monetary policy. The UK has hiked the base rate twice in the last two months to contain inflation despite being one of the worst affected in the last wave of the pandemic. In contrast to this, the approach of the […]
Brent is back at higher levels, US$ 86.50, and the forecasts have come up that it may now touch US$ 100. Those who promote this view pin their hopes on the limited capacity which OPEC + may have in expanding the supply, and this dead end may trigger a surge in prices. There is also […]
While the trend of US Dollar strength was intact against a number of global currencies, it received a temporary set- back against the Euro and Pound Sterling. The Bank of England hiked the base rate in its last meeting, and this has given a push to the positive perceptions about the UK economy. Not only […]
Gold price which is currently at US$ 1820 is attempting a break upwards after remaining subdued for almost three months in narrow ranges. The main reasons for gold being inert is the developments around US interest rates. The high rate of growth and the high level of inflation contributed to the visible change in the […]
The normalization of liquidity initiated by the central bank gathered pace in the last two months with an aggressive approach towards variable rate reverse repos. This has obviously resulted in market rates moving higher. The normalization of liquidity is expected to normalize the returns from various asset classes including equities too over a period of […]
The third wave of the pandemic is sweeping the US and Europe, and most other parts of the world including China and India. But it is not expected to cause any major disruptions to economic life and activity as the level of infection is reported to be milder, requiring no hospitalization in most cases. But […]
Estate and succession planning is the process of anticipating and arranging for the disposal of estate during and after one’s lifetime. In absence of a succession plan, the assets of the deceased would be distributed as per the applicable religious laws amongst the legal heirs. 1.Drafting a will Will is a legal document that comes […]
The CPI based inflation hardened for the month of Nov’21, second consecutive month in a row, as food inflation ticked higher. The headline inflation for the month of Nov’21 came in at 4.91% as compared to 4.48% in the preceding month and 6.93% during the year ago period. The core inflation remained largely stable and […]
The dominant trend in currency markets is the strength of the US Dollar, and this is founded on strong ground that the US rates are rising no matter what happens. The factors that are likely to facilitate this are the stronger than expected economic recovery and the high inflation. The Fed’s decision to start the […]
Gold has been in a broad range of 1760 level to 1860 level during the last one month. The only factor that is supporting gold at this juncture is the rise in inflation and the consequent erosion of purchasing power. There has been a significant moderation in commodity prices, and this is due to the […]
The equity markets are going through a phase of higher volatility, mainly reflecting to a large extent, the developments abroad, especially in the US. The normalization of liquidity is going to bring with it the normalization of returns, as the markets go through some correction in response to liquidity normalization, higher inflation, and rising interest […]
As far as surplus liquidity is concerned, the normalization process has accelerated in the US with the Fed initiating the tapering of bond purchases by US$ 15 billion. This amount has been subsequently enhanced to US $30 billion due to high inflation. In India, the RBI intensified the process of liquidity normalization by announcing Variable […]
The RBI policy announcement has retained the policy rates unchanged, with Repo Rate and Reverse Repo Rate at 4.00% and 3.35% respectively. The policy underlines the commitment to pursue an accommodative stance for an extended period of time to support economic growth, while pursuing the liquidity normalization. As expected, the liquidity management aspects get more […]
The GDP growth number for Q2FY22 was reported at 8.4% as compared to a contraction of 7.4% in the first quarter of FY21. The GVA number for Q2FY22 came in at 8.5% as compared to -7.3% during the year ago comparable period. The GDP and GVA growth rates for the preceding quarter was 20.1% and […]
The Fed Chairman, in his testimony to the Senate Committee, made some meaningful observations, which point towards a potential Fed action in the near future. First, there is a realization that inflation is not transitory or transient anymore. Inflation is going to stay high, and policy needs to address this emerging requirement. Second, there is […]
The RBI policy announcement has retained the policy rates unchanged, with Repo Rate and Reverse Repo Rate at 4.00% and 3.35% respectively. The policy underlines the commitment to pursue an accommodative stance for an extended period of time to support economic growth, while pursuing the liquidity normalization. As expected, the liquidity management aspects get more […]
Brent remains elevated above the US$ 80 level and looks exceptionally well supported at the current levels. Oil was not that important for almost two years in the general scheme of things. But suddenly it has become a matter that calls for the maximum attention. This has many reasons. The first and foremost is the […]
The US Dollar, as expected, maintains its sway over the currency markets, with the strength against the majors remaining unchallenged. While the strength of the Dollar has been mainly due to the change in the Fed’s stance starting with the soon to be implemented normalization of liquidity by tapering of bond purchases. The end result […]
The gold ETFs had seen an outflow equivalent to US$ 1.40 billion in the last month, accelerating a trend seen in the last three months. But the prices edged higher to 1860 levels in a swift bounce-back from the 1760 levels. This bounce- back has been occasioned by the only factor that could be in […]
The equities have turned more volatile in the past one month and it is grappling with a number of factors both internal and external which makes the onward journey slightly more uneven. The earnings season is coming to a close and the complete picture of the Q2 FY22 earnings would emerge in the coming days. […]
The fixed income market faces a number of challenges as it transforms itself from the pandemic-affected period, the high liquidity situation, to the post-pandemic normalization. The challenges pertain to the gradual normalization of liquidity and rising interest rates. The RBI had initiated the liquidity normalisation process way back in January this year. The hike in […]
A formidable challenge facing the financial markets is the need to align themselves to the inevitable process of normalization which the major economies are going through in the post-pandemic time. The unprecedented expansion of liquidity was intended to combat the potential negative effects of the pandemic-led disruption. Liquidity which was injected into the financial system […]
The Central Government’s borrowing programme for the Second Half of the financial year was announced a couple of weeks back. The borrowing schedule is exactly in line with the estimated borrowings, totalling, Rs.5,03,000 Crores. Taking all this into consideration, Dr. Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management, says, “The yields may be set to […]
With Brent at $86 a barrel, oil is at multi-year highs. The price of oil and gas has gone up as consumption remains robust and gradually moving up to the pre-pandemic levels. It is expected that the global consumption will touch the pre-pandemic levels and cross it by the first quarter of 2022. Oil consumption has increased […]
Brent at US$ 83.00 per barrel, oil is at multi- year highs. Price of oil and gas has gone up as consumption remains robust and gradually moving up to the pre-pandemic levels. It is expected that the global consumption will touch the pre-pandemic levels and cross it by the first quarter of 2022. Oil consumption […]
The US Dollar after a brief spell of sluggishness re-established its position of strength against all currency majors. This will continue well into the future mainly as the Fed starts preparing for the tapering of the bond purchases in the next two or three months. While tapering will reduce the liquidity in the system it […]
Gold is at 1760 level, a kind of support for gold prices in the immediate term. In our update in September 2021, we had indicated 1720 and 1760 as the probable support levels for gold prices. There has been a slowdown in central bank purchases of gold in the last three months, and to add […]
The equity markets have scaled new highs, with the outlook for the domestic economy quite stable and robust, given the state of the key macroeconomic indicators. The domestic investor interest has been high with the net inflows into equities through funds, in the phased investments mode, has been going up. What is giving support to […]
The yields may be set to rise further, with the current ten- year benchmark already at the first target 6.35%, we may see further upside towards the 6.50 % – 6.60% levels. The Central Government’s borrowing programme for the Second Half of the financial year was announced a couple of weeks back. The borrowing schedule […]
The RBI policy announced today leaves all the base rates unchanged with continuation of the existing accommodative policy. The accommodation is to continue so long as it is required, that is, economic growth should become sustainable. That the policy would be quiet on rates and active on liquidity has been the expectation by majority of […]
The markets were not in for a surprise. The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) left the base rate unchanged, at 0% to 0.25%, leaving room for a slightly extended period of accommodative policy. But how long would this be? The language of the Fed statement is more reflective of the thinking of the majority […]
While planning for succession one needs to identify each class of asset that a person owns or holds; identify the applicable law of succession for each asset class and accordingly take necessary steps to plan for its succession. The succession laws for various types of assetsis discussed below. I. Immovable Property 1. Sole Ownership – […]
Brent is in a narrow range, and it is set to go nowhere at least for the immediate future. The one distinguishing feature of the recent past is that there is very little to push the prices and equally so to take it lower. The major challenge to rising prices was the rising number of […]
The US Dollar is thriving on the safe-haven status, and the prospects of higher rates in the US consequent to the higher rate of economic growth and higher price level. With the probability of the bond purchases coming down with likely tapering coming up towards the end of this year, the US Dollar is going […]
Gold has not moved at all in the last one or two months, and it may stay where it is and may move in very narrow trading ranges. There are no fresh triggers for the gold price to move up or down. Currently at 1790, gold faces tough resistance at 1830 and 1870, and the […]
The equity market has furthered its good run with a surge in the large cap indexes in the recent past. But something that may be seen from the action in the last two to three fortnights is that the process of normalization of returns to lower levels has started happening. The correction seen in mid […]
The domestic system wide liquidity is currently at Rs.8.50 Lakh Crs, and the interbank has a surplus of Rs.5.50 Lakh Crs on an average in the last three months. This is more or less the same amount that is tendered at the overnight fixed rate reverse repos. The liquidity overhang is demonstrated by the low […]
The Jackson Hole address of the Fed Chairman raised enormous amount of interest among the investors, and the markets too. This was due to the fact that many expected the Fed Chairman to elaborate on the Fed’s plans for the future, that is about the easy money policy and the quantitative expansion through asset purchases. […]
The GDP growth number for Q1FY22 was reported at 20.1% as compared to contraction of 24.4% in the first quarter of FY21. The GVA number for Q1FY22 came in at 18.8% as compared to -22.4% during the year ago comparable period. The record growth rates have largely been a function of a low base effect. […]
As the world is evolving at a faster pace, so is the financial markets evolving and so is the definition and component of wealth changing for the modern man. Today, the term ‘Wealth’ includes financial products such as mutual funds, stocks, shares, bonds, PMS, AIFs, REITs, venture funds etc. The majority of the high-net-worth individuals […]
Brent has come down below the US$ 70 mark after a long while. The main reason that has caused this fall is the emerging demand conditions which may not be favourable as China faces one of the worst outbreaks of the pandemic since the first wave in late 2019. Transport services and movement of people […]
In the absence of any fresh positive triggers gold price remains subdued. There was some uptick in prices when the Fed stated that they may continue the accommodative stance till growth re appears. The resurgence of the pandemic also helped gold move up but that was short lived. The fall came after very strong US […]
The latest jobs report presents a stronger US economy, and the number of jobs added is 943,000 as against the market expectations of 870,000. This has lent good amount of support to the Dollar as the Fed had indicated earlier that it would be monitoring the improvements in the job market for possible direction to […]
The Pandemic & After The equity markets have rallied beyond expectations with higher levels being attained with each passing trading day. And quite in step with that some questions on the expensiveness of valuation too. The liquidity conditions and the low interest rates formed the basis for P/E expansion to a significant extent. The pandemic […]
First, the factor that has always been the friend of the markets, the ample liquidity, is still available to the markets. The average liquidity has been to the tune of about Rs.5.50 Lakh Crs for almost a year now. The stance of the RBI that the growth factor precedes the inflation factor at this juncture […]
Is Retail Inflation Transient? The inflation in the US has been edging higher during the last few months, and the latest data indicates that it is stable at higher levels. The US CPI registered a rise in July to the tune of 0.50 % on a month-on-month basis, the annual inflation rate at 5.40 %, […]
In the monetary policy review by the RBI, all the key rates have been left unchanged. This is on expected lines, and RBI continues to lay accent on the need to sustain growth in preference to price stability, and therefore, an accommodative policy. Inflation is still very close to the RBI’s target range, though a […]
The CPI based inflation has moderated and it has fallen within the RBI’s target range of 4% +/- 2% after a gap of two months. The headline CPI inflation wasreported at 5.59% for the month of Jul’21 as compared to 6.26% for the preceding month and 6.73% during the year ago period. The easing in […]
In the monetary policy review by the RBI, all the key rates have been left unchanged. This is on expected lines, and RBI continues to lay accent on the need to sustain growth in preference to price stability, and therefore, an accommodative policy. Inflation is still very close to the RBI’s target range, though a […]
The current market rally has been possible, mainly due to liquidity that has been aplenty and because of low interest rates, he says. The high level of activity in the primary market may continue for some more time, a few more months. Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management, feels the market has already […]
Time and again, with a greater amount of accuracy and consistency, the data flows from the US present the picture of an economy that is rapidly transforming after the pandemic, both in terms of the prospects of growth and the pace of inflation. While the Fed is quite happy about the explosion of growth, on […]
In the context of housing policies in India, the need for a uniform rental housing law in the country was felt despite some states already having different versions of the Rent Control Act. r, there are many states where the Rent Control Act continues to be in force with some amendments. The Rent Control Act […]
Oil prices have sustained above the US$ 75 per barrel mark and it seems to be poised to touch the US$ 80 level at this juncture. While the view that it may moderate is based on two factors, that there will be an Iran nuclear deal between the US and Iran, and that may bring […]
The US Dollar has been strengthening over the last two months and the main reason behind this strength is the performance of the US economy. After the pandemic, the recovery of the US economy has been faster that expected. This invested the economy with two extremely fast paced variables, a high rate of economic growth, […]
Gold is like a light cork tossed up and down by the waves of news emanating from the US on the shape of the economy and the prospects of the interest rates. The fierce rise in economic growth and the resultant prospects for a rise in interest rates pushed gold prices down back to the […]
The level of inflation has gone beyond the threshold set by the RBI, CPI is above 6%, and that is a reason for concern. The moderation in the price level is dependent on various endogenous and exogenous factors, and prominent among these factors are the price of Brent in the international markets, and the level […]
The focus of the equity markets is singularly on one thing at this point in time – when are we going to be fully open both in India as also elsewhere. A very pertinent question, as that alone would determine the extent to which economic growth can rise and inflation could also. There is another […]
UK has delayed the withdrawal of the final phase of easing of restrictions on account of the pandemic raising its head again. The May inflation rose to 2.10 % as against the Bank of England’s threshold of 2 % creating talks of policy modifications by the Old Lady of the Threadneedle Street. But the Bank […]
Time and gain, with a greater amount of accuracy and consistency, the data flows from the US presents the picture of an economy that is in rapid transformation after the pandemic, both in terms of the prospects of growth and the pace of inflation. While the Fed is quite happy about the explosion of growth, […]
The CPI based inflation moderated marginally in the month of June but stayed outside the RBI’s targeted range for second consecutive month. The headline CPI inflation was reported at 6.26% for the month of Jun’21 as compared to 6.30% for the preceding month and 6.23% during the year ago period. The rural and urban inflation […]
