Gold Looks Well Supported At Current Levels

Gold prices have remained well supported at the 1860 and 1830 levels. Currently trading at 1930 level, gold price has been lifted up by the Middle east conflict which is gradually looking set to assume regional proportions. This has resulted in gold being preferred and the movement in gold is also in alignment with the rise in the price of oil. This is despite the strong Dollar as against the usual trend of gold or oil rising with a weaker Dollar. Therefore, the reason that can be isolated is the geopolitical situation. Despite persistent inflation across all major economies, Gold was not able to rise much because with inflation came extremely hawkish monetary policy which pushed interest rates higher. The rise in money market yields made currency yields attractive and this has resulted in gold moving sideways most of the time. But the more interesting fact is that gold prices have not broken through any key support levels convincingly in the last three months. While demand from ETFs may be soft, the demand from central banks will continue to be there but may not be as strong as strong as it in the last two to three quarters. On the supply front the expectation is that fresh supply from the mines as well as of used gold will be relatively high. What could bring more life to gold is the future trajectory of central bank policies. An easing of monetary policy stance once inflation targets are more or less achieved will help gold with a better price performance. Technically, 1860 and 1830 are strong support levels for gold.

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