Gold Still Resisted At Us $ 2370/80

Gold is getting resisted at around the US$ 2360/2370 levels mainly due to the lack of any fresh triggers to maintain the buoyancy. Since the beginning of the year gold has moved up by 12 %. The prices got immense support from expectations of an easing of USinterest rates, but this has not been fructified as yet as the Fed is looking for more sustained indications of gains in inflation. This wait for lower official rates may get prolonged by another quarter or so, but there are definitive signs that the Fed is out of a rate hike mode. The other factor that helped a pick-up in gold prices was the geopolitical situation especially in the Middle East. The support levels for gold, technically, is at US$ 2310 and US$ 2280 and US$ 2260 in that order. The fall in US treasury yields has brought in some support or gold at US$2310 level. But the probability of gold testing still lower levels cannot be ruled out. What is crucial for gold is a rate cut in the US followed by much lower treasury yields. This will be harbinger of weaker currency and a higher price in commodities which are quoted in US Dollars. The central bank purchases which have been more or less steady in the last two years is expected to give support to gold at these levels. Central banks may be considering a higher allocation to their gold reserves in the light of heightened volatility in the asset markets and also the quality of gold as an asset that is relatively safer and preserves value. It is reported that the purchases of gold by China has come to a halt in the last two months. Till the rate trajectory is more clear, gold may be range-bound with the resistance at US$2370 and the support levels at US$ 2280. Even silver prices have declined to sub-US$ 30 levels, though going by technical indicators silver may still have a 15 % to 20 % upside in case of it gathering further momentum. Silver has to its advantage the property of utility in industrial uses which gives it the capacity to run faster than gold. Silver may attempt to move up to its all-time highs in the next six.

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