Brent is Range-Bound Occasionally Tilted by Geo-Political Developments

Oil prices have been range-bound in the recent past except for the brief uptick in prices on account of the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict. Briefly, Brent moved up beyond the US$ 90 per barrel level fearing some disruption of oil supply due to a prolonged war in the Middle East. At present it looks […]

Gold Looks Resisted at Higher Levels,Awaiting Fresh Triggers

Gold prices moved up from the US$ 2050 base, where it was hovering around for a long time, to a new range mainly due to the tensions that emerged in the Middle East, and also on the back of the Fed stance in relation to the policy rate. The initial period of the rise in […]

CPI Remains Stable…Upside Risks to Food Inflation Emerge

The CPI based inflation for the month of April 2024 was reported at 4.83%, largely unchanged as compared to the levels reported in the preceding month. These are the lowest numbers in the last 10 months. The CPI inflation during the year ago period was reported at 4.70%. The headline numbers remained well supported by […]

LIVING WILL

The landmark 2018 Supreme Court judgement of “Aruna Shanbaug Case” legalized “Passive Euthanasia” which is an act of withdrawal of life support system or withholding medical treatment which artificially prolongs life. In this case activist and author Pinki Virani asked for permission to pull out the life support of Aruna Shanbaug, a nurse who had […]

The Elephant in the Room Should Retreat to the Jungle Again

The Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI has left the policy rates unchanged, with the Repo Rate at 6.50%. The rationale for the status quo on rates is given in the policy statement – “Headline inflation has come off the December peak; however, food price pressures have been interrupting the ongoing disinflation process, posing challenges […]

CPI Unchanged…Food Inflation Playing Truant

The CPI based inflation for the month of February 2024 remained largely unchanged at 5.09% as compared to the previous month. The CPI inflation during the year ago period was reported at 6.44%. While the headline number remained flattish, the underlying components reflected diverging trends; the food inflation inched higher, whereas core inflation continued with […]

Gold Struggling to Break Through the
2060 Level

Gold had set a high of US$ 2080 in the last two months, and in the last one month it has been struggling to break through the US$ 2060 level. The price is reluctant to come down and has made abase around 2020 levels. It is remaining in a narrow range mainly due to the […]

Brent Likely to be Range-Bound

Brent has been in a narrow range of US$ 76 to US$ 82 per barrel. This behaviour in prices stems from the lack of any fresh triggers for the prices to move either way. One of the potential triggers would have been the Middle East situation which seems to have subsided in its intensity, and […]

RBI Policy: Status Quo Maintained

The RBI decided to maintain status quo on the rates front and continue with its stance of withdrawal of accommodation to progressively achieve its inflation target of 4%, while supporting growth. While there were no expectations on the rate front, there were some market participants expecting a change in stance from the current one of […]

Interim Budget – A Glimpse of things to come…

The Interim Budget or the Vote-on-Account presented by the Finance Minister, reflects a significant amount of continuity, and the commitment to continue with several welfare measures benefitting the diverse strata of society, especially the poor, youth, women, and farmers. The projected government borrowing program for FY25 is lower than the FY24 numbers. The gross borrowing […]

Should you get into metals? What to buy in pharma?

Dr Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management, says “overall, we will see fairly good performance from all the major sectors, including especially pharma, the banking and financial services segments, and also from a number of segments which have been doing fairly well in terms of the overall management of their financial position, in terms of […]

Dollar Movements May Be Linked To
US Interest Rate Policy

The currency markets are led by the trajectory of US interest rates to a large extent. With inflation coming down and the US economy registering robust growth the likelihood of US interest rate policy getting into a tightening mode after three pauses can be ruled out. This has resulted in a kind of selling of […]

The Booming Yellow Metal

The yellow metal has boomed from the lows seen in the last six months to level beyond US$ 2000, and currently it is perched at 2010 level. The boom was possible with the depreciation of the US Dollar against other currencies, and the fall in the Dollar Index, both of which were possible due to […]

Brent Reflects Some Amount Of
Demand Destruction

Brent is trading at US$ 78 per barrel, and it looks like it may be range-bound in the immediate term with a negative bias. In our last update we had mentioned two opposing factors that are at work as far as the direction of oil prices is concerned. “There are two theories that are discussed […]

Monetary Policy: Stability From A Prolonged Hold

As far as policy rates are concerned, it is going to be a period of prolonged hold. The Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI, in its meeting decided to keep the base rates unchanged. This is in line with the general expectations. This is also in alignment with the RBI’s objectives of controlling inflation, and […]

Headline inflation number further eases…

The CPI based inflation eased for the third consecutive month and was reported the 5% mark. The headline inflation for the month of Oct’23 came in at 4.87% as compared to 5.02% for the preceding month and 6.77% for the year ago period. A high base and continued easing in core inflation numbers were the […]

The Fed and the Markets

The Fed in the recently concluded FOMC meeting left the policy rate unchanged. This is the second time in succession that the Fed has left the rates on hold. This is an indication of the policy rates reaching more or less the peak levels, and any further up-moves may be small in relation to the […]

Brent May Be Highly Volatile

Brent is at US$ 90 and looks poised to test higher levels. The immediate factor that is adding to the volatility is the evolving war situation in the Middle East. It looks like, other states in the region may also gradually be drawn into the conflict if it gets prolonged. More than a third of […]

Gold Looks Well Supported At Current Levels

Gold prices have remained well supported at the 1860 and 1830 levels. Currently trading at 1930 level, gold price has been lifted up by the Middle east conflict which is gradually looking set to assume regional proportions. This has resulted in gold being preferred and the movement in gold is also in alignment with the […]

Headline number stabilises…for now

The CPI based inflation eased to 5.02% for the month of Sep’23 as compared to 6.83% in the preceding month and 7.41% during the year ago period. The easing in the prices of vegetables and a favourable base effect were the key factors that supported the easing of headline numbers and the same getting reported […]

RBI Policy: India Too Higher For Longer

The RBI decided to maintain status quo on the rates front and continue with its stance of withdrawal of accommodation to progressively achieve its inflation target of 4%, while supporting growth. While the policy was on expected lines on the rates front, the major surprise was in the form of governor mentioning OMO-sales in his […]

Growth – Meets Expectations

The GDP growth rate for Q1FY24 came in at 7.8% as compared to growth of 6.1% in the preceding quarter and 13.1% during the year ago period. The GDP growth rate was in line with street estimates. The strong performance of the services sector and robust government capex were the key factors contributing to the […]

RBI Policy: Hawkish Tone, Longer Pause

Pre-Policy Assessment: The pre-policy assessment which we had published is as follows: “In the last two policy announcements RBI maintained a studied pause while making it amply clear that based on data if required the RBI would go in for rate hikes. In fact, it seems like RBI has more or less arrived at a […]

A hawkish pause…

The Fed has announced an expected hike in the Fed Funds Rate of 0.25%, the Fed Fund rate target range is now at 5.25%-5.5%. In its previous policy announcement, wherein the Fed had maintained a pause, the Fed had indicated at two more rate hikes for the remainder of the year. Even though inflation has […]

Food basket weighs on headline numbers…

The CPI based inflation moved higher for the month of Jun’23 and was reported at 4.81%, after easing for 4 consecutive months. The inflation for the preceding month and the comparable year ago period was 4.31% and 7.01% respectively. The surge in food prices was one of the key contributing factors to that led to […]

Joseph Thomas of Emkay is bullish on BFSI sector. Here’s why

“Higher profitability, cleaner balance sheets, and the trend of lower non-performing assets is something that makes the BFSI sector attractive,” K Joseph Thomas, Head Of Research at Emkay Wealth Management says in an interview to Moneycontrol. With a growing economy, and faster credit growth, and a likely moderating interest rate scenario over the next two […]

The pause is just “a bend in the river.”

The Fed has announced a much-expected pause in the interest rate hikes cycle. The pause, or a “skip” as some are calling it, was anticipated after the recently released inflation numbers. The consumer price inflation was reported at 4% for the month of May 2023, the lowest since March 2021. The RBI too in two […]

RBI Policy: A Long Pause on the Anvil

As was widely expected, the RBI has left the key policy rate, the Repo rate, unchanged at 6.50%. The economic environment is very similar to the one in the month of April 2023, when RBI declared its first status quo policy in the current rate hike cycle. Even though the inflation remains above the RBI’s […]

The Fed and the Markets

In a widely anticipated move the US Fed hiked the repo rate by 25 bps, thereby taking the federal funds rate target range to 5% to 5.25%. The second expectation of the market has also come through. The Fed has given soft indications that it may pause, or this might be the last one in […]

Gold Prices Pick Up a Bullish Tinge but
Mostly Dollar-driven

Gold is trading at US$1950, and two attempts have been made in the last one month to break through the US$1980 level and in the third attempt it could break through the critical resistance. What propelledgold recently has been the uncertainties around the US banking system, and also similar developments inEurope, and the fears that […]

The Fed and the Markets

In a widely anticipated move the US Fed hiked the repo rate by 25 bps, thereby taking the federal funds rate target range to 4.75% to 5%. This job growth remains strong, the unemployment rate has remained low and the inflation remains elevated, but what has changed since the last FOMC meeting is the emergence […]

Inflation remains outside RBI’s target range

The CPI based inflation surged for the month of Feb’23 remained largely stable at 6.44% as compared to levels reported for the preceding month i.e., 6.52%. For two consecutive months, the headline inflation numbers have now remained outside the RBI’s target range. The consumer food price index-based inflation as well as core inflation eased marginally […]

Corporate earnings are under pressure. Expect more compression as growth slows

The Q3 FY23 earnings season has trudged along on more or less on an anticipated and satisfactory terrain. The net sales growth for Nifty 50 and BSE 500 borders on 18.50 percent, and the profit after tax (PAT) growth was 7.6 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively. Relatively better performance, as expected, has come from the […]

Central banks are on the horns of a policy dilemma

The persistence of inflation and the need to be expansionary to spur growth are trying to draw the cart in opposite directions Inflation persistence is one of the serious policy dilemmas faced by central banks. This will continue to pull policymakers in opposing directions for some more time to come. This is similar in the […]

Inflation surges again…

The CPI based inflation surged for the month of Jan’23 and was reported at 6.52%, a three month high. After easing for two consecutive months, the headline inflation numbers have surged again and has landed outside the RBI’s target range. The headline inflation number for the preceding month and for the year ago period was […]

RBI Policy: Perspectives

RBI has hiked the Repo Rate by 25 bps from 6.25% to 6.50%, reaffirming its commitment to containing inflationary pressures. The rate action was expected from the RBI in view of the inflationary trend and also against the background of the Fed hiking the Fed Funds rate again. The need to protect the Rupee by […]

The US – “A Touch & Go Slowdown”, Policy Moderation Likely

In the last one week there have been a number of data points to gain some inferences from mainly on the US and Europe. The US GDP growth for Q4 of 2022 came in at 2.90%. This is well above the consensus of 2.50% and surprising on the higher side, though not significantly. The Q3 […]

Inflation eases to a twelve-month low

The CPI based inflation eased for the month of Dec’22 and was reported at 5.72%, a marginal surprise to the consensus estimates. This is the second consecutive month of headline numbers getting reported within the RBI’s target range; after remaining above the 6% mark for 10 consecutive months. The headline inflation number for the preceding […]

Brent Well Supported At Current Levels

Oil prices have been pulled in different directions in the last three months. The coming into effect of the sanctions against Russia has been the singular important factor that could have affected oil prices. But prices at this juncture looks well supported at US$ 75-US$ 80 levels. It is quite possible that it could rise […]

Gold Is Pretty Range-bound

Gold has been in a range of 1780-1830 in the last three weeks. What helped gold rise from 1680-1730 levels is the impression that the Fed tightening was probably going to end soon. But that was not to be. The Fed rate action showed the same level of aggression as before re-affirming the earlier stance […]

How to plan for succession of assets located in different countries

A separate will can be drafted as per the local laws so that it can be easily executed in each jurisdiction and interpreted by the Court   With globalisation, Indians have acquired assets in India and other countries. One can either prepare a single multi-jurisdictional will or separate situs wills for its succession.  Both are valid. What […]

The Fed and the Markets

The Fed has hiked the base rate by 50 basis points, taking the Fed Funds Rate to 4.25% to 4.50%. The hike of 50 basis points is by no means a small hike, but some relief could be had from the fact that it is smaller compared to the earlier rate hikes. That would also […]

Gold looking for a reason to move up…

Gold has been trading in very narrow ranges and it was not able to break above the 1730 level for a long time and at the same time it has been basing at the 1640-1680 levels. This indicates the lack of any fresh factors to trigger a move in either direction. Against an elevated inflation, […]

The Pace of Tightening Slows…

The Pace of Tightening Slows… The Policy Action RBI has hiked the Repo Rate by 35 basis points taking the policy rate to 6.25%, and the SDF rate to 6.00%. The policy action was on expected lines, the central bank was seen reducing the pace of rate hikes in the wake of moderating inflation (as […]

Equities may be less volatile and makes better investment sense

The equity indexes have been quite buoyant  over the recent past with some money from overseas investors tricking in. While this provides a positive anchor to the markets, the future will depend on two critical factors. The first is, one needs to see the inflationary pressures gradually coming down and the same brining in moderation […]

Inflation eases to a three-month low

The CPI based inflation eased for the month of Oct’22 and was reported at 6.77%. The headline inflation number for the preceding month and for the year ago period was 7.41% and 4.48% respectively. The easing in YoY inflation for food prices was the primary contributor to some respite seen in headline numbers. The core […]

Fed Relentlessly Chasing Inflation

The Fed Funds Rate decision was on expected lines, with FOMC hiking the rate by 75 bps. This takes the target range to 3.75% to 4%. The inflation has been running hot at 8% plus headline numbers for 7 consecutive months, a far cry from the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Fed has indicated that […]

Brent Prices Supported by Supply Constraints

Brent which is currently at around US$ 88 per barrel is at a very critical level. This is because of three reasons. The first is the likely onset of winter very soon and the expectations of a strong winter which would require higher consumption of fuel for heating devices. Second, the holiday season is going […]

Gold Remains Lacklustre

Gold has been mostly range-bound, trading between 1620 and 1720, and the last traded level is 1650. It is widely expected that in the near future gold may remain in narrow ranges and the only factor which gives some potential for strength to gold at this point of time is the occasional talk of gold […]

Banking & Financial Services Funds

The Banking & Financial Services sector (BFSI), over the years, has emerged as one of the most diverse plays on the India growth story. While the importance of a stable banking industry to support the economic growth cannot be stressed enough, the opportunities available across the financial services segment today make this sector an even […]

SDL Funds: Advantages of Long-Term Debt Funds

  One of the means by which a higher yield can be captured for the debt investment portfolio is to invest into mutual fund schemes that have State Development Loans as the underlying asset. These investments have multiple advantages. (a) The SDL portfolios have yields in the range of 7% to 7.7% depending upon the […]

Volatile food prices push inflation higher

The CPI based inflation moved higher for the second consecutive month and has now stayed outside the RBI’s target range for the ninth consecutive month. The headline inflation number for the month of Sep’22 was reported at 7.41%, as compared to 7.00% in the preceding month and 4.35% during the year ago period. The uptick […]

Tighter Policy but Real Rates in Focus

The Policy Action RBI has hiked the Repo Rate by 50 basis points taking the policy rate to 5.90%, and the SDF rate to 5.65%. The policy action confirms the stance of the central bank and that tightening will continue till price stability is attained. The Background ➢ The policy has been announced against the […]

REITs

The Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) is structured like Mutual Funds (MFs), in the sense that it allows pooling of investor money to buy a particular asset. REITs, as the nomenclature suggests, invest in income generating real estate assets. The investors benefit by way of dividend-like income and also by valuations gains in the underlying […]

Banking & Financial Services Funds

The Banking & Financial Services sector (BFSI), over the years, has emerged as one of the most diverse plays on the India growth story. While the importance of a stable banking industry to support the economic growth cannot be stressed enough, the opportunities available across the financial services segment today make this sector an even […]

The Galloping Dollar

The US Dollar is galloping its way up against all currency majors and it is progressively reflected in the Dollar Index. What lends strength to the US Dollar is the rising interest rates occasioned by the tight money policy followed by the Fed. With an affirmation from the Fed that the same policy will be […]

Yields Stable to Lower but Pressures Persist

Yields have been stable to lower but maintaining a range which is 7.15 % to 7.35 % on the ten-year benchmark. One of the encouraging factors is the inflows into bonds from the overseas investors in the last one month which has instilled some confidence in the market participants. A second factor that has brought […]

Volatile food prices push inflation higher

The CPI based inflation moved higher, after easing for three consecutive months. The headline inflation number for the month of Aug’22 was reported at 7%, as compared to 6.71% in the preceding month and 5.30% during the year ago period. The uptick in food inflation was the key contributor to the hardening of headline inflation. […]

US Federal Reserve’s policy actions ushering in a slowdown, recession not so likely

Though it is more or less certain that there is going to be a slowdown in growth, there is no indication that the economy may end up in a serious recession. In June the retail prices in the US rose by 9.10%, the highest level in almost four decades. This rise is despite the last […]

How to rebalance your debt mutual fund portfolio amid interest rate movement

Debt mutual fund: As interest rates rise, the value of fixed income portfolios gradually declines, and the highest decline is at the long end of the curve Rising interest rates make it imperative that the fixed income investments or portfolio be reviewed for necessary changes and realignments. But one should not be under the impression […]

Warmer days after Jackson Hole…

The address of the Fed Chair at Jackson Hole was on ‘monetary policy and price stability’. There was nothing much that was unexpected in the speech except that it scaffolded in an unusually emphatic way the importance of price stability, that is, lower inflation, as a prerequisite for sustainable economic growth. In an invariably divided […]

SDL Funds: Advantages of Long- Term Debt Funds

One of the means by which a higher yield can be captured for the debt investment portfolio is to invest into mutual fund schemes that have State Development Loans as the underlying asset. These investments have multiple advantages. (a) The SDL portfolios have yields in the range of 7.40% to 7.80% depending upon the state […]

Yields Trend Lower but No Directional Change As Yet…

The government borrowing program is completed to the extent of a little more than a third of the total primary issue planned for the year. While the average issue of securities continues to be around Rs.32,000 Crs per week, the liquidity in the system has come down drastically to Rs.1.50 lakh Crs. The overnight rate […]

Equities Looks Set to Turn a New Leaf

The many pains which enveloped the equity markets seems to be waning although at a sluggish pace. The obvious factors that triggered a fall in the markets were the uncertainties around the economy and the markets. These uncertainties were due to high commodity prices, the trajectory of inflation, the liquidity normalization policies of the central […]

The Fed and the Markets: A Cat that Catches Mice…

In June the US retail prices rose by 9.10%, the highest level in almost four decades. This rise is despite the last three hikes in the base rate. Therefore, the objective of countering the rising inflation, and bringing it back to the Fed’s target level of 2% remains uppermost in the Fed’s mind. It was […]

Inflation eases, supported by softness in food prices

The CPI based inflation eased marginally and was reported at 6.71% for the month of Jul’22, as compared to 7.01% in the preceding month, and 5.59% during the year ago period. The easing of food inflation was the key contributor to the softening of headline inflation. Core inflation too witnessed a move similar to the […]

Estate planning: Preparing for incapacity

With the advancement in healthcare and medical science, our life expectancies have increased. However, ageing comes with other problems such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson and other cognitive disorders leaving one in a position where they cannot manage their assets and financial investments. In such a state of incapacitation, planning for it is an essential area of […]

The Fed and the Markets: A Cat that Catches Mice…

In June the retail prices rose by 9.10%, the highest level in almost four decades. This rise is despite the last three hikes in the base rate. Therefore, the objective of countering the rising inflation, and bringing it back to the Fed’s target level of 2% remains uppermost in the Fed’s mind. It was expected […]

Inflation remains flattish, supported by softness in food prices

The CPI based inflation remained flattish and was reported at 7.01% for the month of Jun’22, as compared to 7.04% in the preceding month, and 6.26% during the year ago period. A favourable base effect and softness in prices of food articles led to a stable headline number. Core inflation too witnessed a move similar […]

Inflation not tamed yet, retail prices likely to stay elevated as oil prices remain sticky

The inflationary pressures are expected to remain elevated over the near to medium term due to the same reasons why they moved up. The retail inflation touched a high of 7.79% in April and eased to 7.04% in May, showing some signs of fatigue after a five-month unbroken upward trajectory. The moderation in the prices […]

Brent May Edge Lower

Oil price still reflects the premium which got priced in at the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Recently, there has been some moderation in oil prices of about 15 % in the last two weeks. This fall in prices is occasioned by a record increase in US crude production which touched 12 million […]

Dollar Surges Again…

The Dollar index was at 104.85 on May 12 22, and thereafter, it pulled back to 102.08 level later in the month. But the index surged thereafter touching 104.28 by June 20, 2022. The movement in the Dollar Index demonstrates the strength in the US unit, and the likely trajectory in the coming months. The […]

Gold Trades in Narrow Ranges

Gold is trading at US$ 1840, and for almost a period of four weeks it has been hovering around this level. It has not moved much having been pulled in two directions by two powerful forces – the persistent inflationary pressures, and the rising rates. The rise in US rates has been much faster and […]

FDs might be attractive for common man but equity gives 12-14% over a 10-yr period

“FDs will suddenly become more attractive for the common investors as interest rates continue to rise, especially socially for those who do not like to take any kind of market risk.,” says Dr Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management. In an interview with ETMarkets, Thomas said: “But the opportunity cost is a return of 12 […]

The Fed and the Markets

The Fed rate hike of 75 basis points is through, and it is well on the lines expected by majority of the market participants. This takes the Fed Funds target range to 1.50% to 1.75%. It was on the back of a fiercely raging inflation at 8.60% in May that the Fed rate hike has […]

Inflation eases, but expected to remain elevated…

The CPI based inflation stayed above RBI’s target range of 2% to 6% for the fifth consecutive month, although it has moderated marginally. The headline inflation for the month of May’22 came in at 7.04% as compared to 7.79% in the preceding month, and 6.30% during the year ago period. Even as the high base […]

Brent – Supply Constraints Support Elevated Prices Now…

The lockdown in Shanghai has hit the oil demand in China. This is the fourth consecutive month when the demand for crude oil has declined in China. The trend is set to remain intact till Shanghai is re-opened after the pandemic fear subsides. There is rising inventory of jet fuel, and the refinery output is […]

The Dollar Index Soars High…

The US Dollar put up a splendid show of strength in the last few months, and it accelerated further in the last three weeks. The Dollar Index moved up to 104.85 on May 12 22, and thereafter, retreated a bit to the 103.40 level. This surge was from the lowest level seen in two months, […]

All That Glitters…

Gold price in international market has slumped to US$ 1815. While the surging inflation in the major economies of the world makes it an appropriate choice for some amount of value preservation, the strength in the US Dollar and the rising US rates are putting pressure on gold price. There is a clear positioning from […]

Primary Auctions, OMOs Push Yields Higher…

The headline WPI inflation for April 22 came in at 15.10%, and it is the highest reading so far indicating the likelihood of more inflation being priced in the future retail inflation numbers. The persistently high oil prices in global markets and the weak Rupee will exert pressure on the domestic price level which has […]

Inflation Surges, Further Policy Action Not Too Distant

The rate of inflation indicated by Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged to 7.79 % in the month of April 2022, from 6.95 % in March 2022. This is the highest inflation rate in almost eight years, and the fourth consecutive month during which inflation remained above the ceiling of the RBI’s policy target range. This […]

Slaying the Demon of Inflation… the Priority

All eyes are on the next meeting of the FOMC due on 14th and 15th of June, almost three weeks from now. It is not without reason that this attention is given to the event. The Fed’s decision on rates affects everything around the world. That is the perception and the reality. It is almost […]

Inheritance rights of adopted, illegitimate, stepchildren, separated spouse, live-in partner

More than ever, India is witnessing an increase in divorce cases, multiple marriages, live-in relationships, having stepchildren, children from previous marriage, adopted children, children born out of wedlock. In this article we explain to you the inheritance rights of the partner and the child in context of the succession laws and the court judgements for Hindus in […]

Inflation Surges, Could Invite Policy Action

The CPI based inflation stayed above RBI’s target range of 2% to 6% for the third consecutive month and touched a 17-month high. The headline inflation for the month of Mar’22 came in at 6.95% as compared to 6.07% in the preceding month, and 5.52% during the year ago period. The surge in inflation was […]

Crude May Stay Elevated, But Falling Demand Holds Out a Little Hope…

Brent remains in a broad range between US$ 95 and US$ 115, and the likelihood of oil prices remaining elevated is high mainly due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the related developments. The central value towards which the price has been showing a tendency to converge is US$ 100. While the price has […]

Equities, a Buy on Any Correction In Prices…

The equities markets had seen the last major fall to the tune of about 15 % and after the subsequent revival, looks set to test lower levels in the coming weeks. The local market often mirrors the US market developments. The recent gains in the market have been the result of a kind of moderation […]

Why Is It Important To Obtain A Probate For A Will?

A probate ensures a seamless transfer of assets to the legal beneficiaries of the deceased, and is also mandatory in the Presidency towns of Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai. Know more about the process of obtaining one Making a Will not only ensures that your wishes are respected once you are gone, but without a carefully […]

Private trusts can be designed to meet unique needs of each family

“No one size fits all” is used aptly for private trusts.  A private trust commonly used for succession planning is a bespoke document and one can customize a trust deed to meet one’s family objectives.   Though a private trust is governed by the Indian Trust Act, 1882 and Income Tax Act, 1961, if offers […]

Banking & Financial Services Funds

The Banking & Financial Services sector (BFSI), over the years, has emerged as one of the most diverse plays on the India growth story. While the importance of a stable banking industry to support the economic growth cannot be stressed enough, the opportunities available across the financial services segment today makes this sector an even […]

Rate Normalization May be on the Cards

Retail inflation indicated by the CPI for the month of February has touched 6.07 %, and it has come up from 6.02 % for January, and in the last two months inflation has been above the ceiling of the threshold set by the RBI, which is 6 %. The primary factor that has contributed to […]

Fed Rate Hike, Its implications

The Fed has acted finally to revise the target fed funds rate by 0.25%, taking the rate to the range of 0.25% to 0.50%. The last such hike was in December 2018. This move by the Fed is exactly on expected lines and there is no surprise element in this at all. The actual rate […]

Market fairly valued now, but challenge is to maintain economic growth momentum & reduce inflation

The situation that we are encountering today is a bull market correction. The correction is quite deep with a fall equivalent to 15 percent from the peak levels. But it is too early to say whether the market has turned bearish, says Dr. Joseph Thomas, Head of Research in an interview with moneycontrol.com. Dr. Thomas […]

Brent, More Complex Dynamics

In our last update on oil prices, it was mentioned that “those who promote this view (oil at US$ 100) pin their hopes on the limited capacity which OPEC + may have in expanding the supply, and this dead end may trigger a surge in prices. There is also a talk of structurally bullish phase […]

Good Times for the US Dollar

The trend is intact. The US Dollar is stronger. There is no reason to expect this to soften anytime given the several factors that lend strength to the US unit. The likely hike in the base rate by the Fed in a month or two, and the rising US yields have added strength to the […]

Inflation and Geo-Political Tensions Bring Gains in Gold Prices

Gold has maintained a broad range of US$ 1760 – US$ 1860. Whie it is technically still within the range, there are two factors that have provided some sheen to the yellow metal. The first factor is the inflationary situation prevailing in many large economies, and the second and probably more transient factor is the […]

Market Rates May Continue Their Upward Walk

While the budget with its massive borrowing program, and a long-drawn-out fiscal glide path, was not entirely to the liking of the fixed income market. These were obvious reasons why the market rates went up, as expected by the market participants. Immediately after the budget the rates moved up and the benchmark ten year touched […]

Inflation Touches 7 Months’ High…

The CPI based inflation continued to harden and breached the RBI’s target range of 2% to 6%. The headline inflation for the month of Jan’22 came in at 6.01% as compared to 5.66% in the preceding month and 4.06% during the year ago period. The rise in inflation was mostly attributable to an unfavourable base […]

RBI Policy: Rates Unchanged but the Next Policy Statement More Crucial

The policy rates have been left unchanged and the policy stance remains accommodative. The Governor opened his statement like this – economic growth is good and better than other countries, inflation is still within the threshold set by the RBI, and the pandemic is still a threat, and therefore, the need to protect lives and […]

Global Economies: Policy Divergence and Long-term Expectations

A marked divergence between countries is visible in their approach to post pandemic fiscal and monetary policy. The UK has hiked the base rate twice in the last two months to contain inflation despite being one of the worst affected in the last wave of the pandemic. In contrast to this, the approach of the […]

Brent, Being Pulled From Both Ends

Brent is back at higher levels, US$ 86.50, and the forecasts have come up that it may now touch US$ 100. Those who promote this view pin their hopes on the limited capacity which OPEC + may have in expanding the supply, and this dead end may trigger a surge in prices. There is also […]